We are coming to the final month of the season and I thought it would be a good time to refer to my April 12th post on player predictions. Was I right or was I wrong? Here is how I see it, but you be the judge. https://mlblogshomerfoodandhistory.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/dye-thumb-354×409.jpgarchives/2008/04/early_season_team_and_player_p.html
I have to admit that I hopped on the banwagon with some players that had great early starts.
Firstly, I said that Mark Reynolds (who had a great start) would hit 35-40 homers this season and be a solid player for the NL leader Diamondbacks. Well Reynolds has been okay, but less than amazing. He might hit 30 homers this year, but he is definately not carrying a struggling Diamondbacks team. Reynolds also is hitting for a very low average, he doesn’t seem to be a very complete hitter. An all or nothing homerun guy, like Rob Deer or Dave Parker if you can remember those old names.
Daisuke Matsuzaka and Johnaton Papelbon. Daisuke is 15-2 with an ERA under 3.00. He hasn’t been the strikeout machine I predicted him to be, but he has been very solid for a good Red Sox team. A good September and he can still conceivably win Cy Young.
Papelbon has the lowest WHIP of all closers, is 3rd in the AL in Saves and 2nd in strikeouts among closers in the AL. He is dominant and has been dominant.
J.D. Drew. Drew has put up solid numbers, but nothing above his career averages. He is basically doing what you’d expect him to do, which is not bad at all.
The Red Sox are still in playoff contention, but they are not as dominant as I thought they’d be. Who would have predicted Tampa Bay this year, come on? I should have mentioned Dusin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilus because they are the ones doing the best in Boston.
I called it on Jorge Cantu being a sleeper. How big has this guy been with the Marlins? On pace for 30 homers, driving in runs and hitting for a respectable average. Watching him in Tampa Bay playing against the Jays, I knew that he still had lots left in the tank. I called it! Cantu is a bigtime fantasy sleeper this season.
Baltimore, Kansas City and Oakland were all in first place in their divisions on April 12th. I knew the Orioles and Royals were not for real, but I thought that Oakland would have a chance to contend with their young pitchers. I was wrong, their young starters have been less than spectacular and they traded away Harden, which basically was the white flag on their season.
Like many, I liked the Tigers in the central. They have disappointed, they looked like they would drive in a billion runs this season, but that is impossible. SI had them winning the World Series, come on give me some leeway here! Leeway I tell ya!
I was a believer in the White Sox this year, and in the post I mention “look for them to do good things.” They have a solid ballclub and are contending for the Wild Card, if not he division.
I said Jermaine Dye would be a key hitter for the White Sox and he is. On pace for 40 homers, 100 plus RBI’s and hitting .298. This guy can flat out hit and he is looking like the Jermaine Dye of 2 years ago. Swish, 2 points for me!!
Bobby Crosby. I liked this guy when he won Rookie of the Year in 2004. I thought that he would comeback with an injury free season and do well. I was wrong he is hitting .248, 7 homers, and 6 stolen bases. This guy was a one year wonder. Sorry to anyone that was unfortuate enough to take my advice here.
In the World Series I had the Diamondbacks versus the Red Sox. Still could happen, I guess, we will see.
So there is a recap of my predictions. I’m a little disappointed in myself, my picks were not that great. There were a couple good ones here and there, but I was definately not spot on.
What teams are for real, and what teams are not? What players are for real, and what players are not? That will the subject of this entry. I don’t like making pre-season predictions because I really don’t watch teams in Spring Training, and how is Spring Training reflective of anything, anyway? I like to get a week in, before I can make any semi-good judgements.
We start the first week of the season with Mark Reynolds leading the league in homers and rbi’s. A great prospect last season, he came into 2008 a little under the radar. He did have a solid season last year and he was a pretty big part of the Diamondbacks NLCS run. Will this guy lead the league in homers/rbis all year? Definately not, but he is for real. A solid player and huge fantasy aqusition. If you have him? He will probably hit 35-40 homers this season and drive in 110 rbi. The Diamondbacks, now with Upton, Young, Reynolds, the ODOG (one of my favorites in Toronto, a little inconsistant at the plate however) and a great pitching staff featuring Webb, Haren and Owings (who will all have solid fantasy seasons) are definately my favorite to take the West and go to the World Series. The Rockies were a late season wonder last year and I don’t see them getting that hot again. With a staff and a lineup like that, the D-Backs will easily be able to fend off the Padres and the Dodgers, even with their bullpen (they may have to do something about that at the trade deadline).
The Diamondbacks are my favorite in the NL, but in that league, a lot can happen. The Rockies last season were definately evidence of that. I see a Diamondbacks versus the Mets/Phillies/Braves, whoever wins that battle in the 2008 NLCS.
The NL: Watch for big seasons from Mets pitching (i.e. Santana, Oliver Perez), Diamondback hitters (i.e. Reynolds, Upton, Young) NL Fantasy Sleepers: Yunel Escobar and Jorge Cantu could have unexpected solid numbers this season.
Unusal start in the AL. The Orioles, Athletics and Royals are in first place in their respected divisions. You might as well reverse Triple A with MLB, if these teams end up making it to playoffs, lol. None of them are for real, although one or two of them may be in the wild card hunt. Oakland will be there if they get a healthy Rich Harden back. Early injuries to Lackey and Escobar, in Anaheim, might propel them or Seattle to win the AL West.
I still like the Tigers in the central, although it will be a very close race between at least 3 teams in that division. The Tigers will be lead by Curtis Granderson having a huge run producing season. Look for the Tigers to really make a post All-Star break statement. The Tigers don’t, however, have the pitching to guide that far in the playoffs. Look for large ERAs, but high amount of wins out of all pitchers on that team. Other than them, look for the White Sox to try and prove themselves this season (they have solid veterns like Dye, Thome, Cabrera, Crede).
I see the AL east as being a close race all season between probably 4 teams. Towards the end of the season, Beckett, Daisuke and Wakefield will turn it on. There is no stopping the Red Sox in a playoff run. They are just too darn strong and deep!
My favorite, in the AL, is still the Red Sox. Down the stretch they will be tough, and in late innings, they will shut teams down with ease (very important!). I don’t think another team can ‘hold a candle’ to them in the AL. Look for unexpected big things from either Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury, and J.D. Drew. Nice surprises to an already potent set of All-Stars. Ellsbury will be good even though he has had a rough start batting .176. We all know what Crisp can be cabable of, so even if Ellsbury needs some more time in the minors the Red Sox will still be deep there.
The AL: Big year in strikeouts and ERA for Daisuke, he will compete for Cy Young. Beckett falls off a bit, but not much. Papelbon leads the league in saves and ERA for a closer. Another big year for Upton and Pena (won’t have a high average, however) from Tampa. Some very good pitching production from guys on Tampa (i.e. Sheilds and Jackson). AL Fantasy Sleepers: Shaun Marcum from the Jays will be solid (better than McGowan), same with Aaron Hill. Curtis Granderson, Jermaine Dye and Bobby Crosby will all have career years, this season. Crosby is a great player that has not really had the season that he is capable of, he will eke out a lot of hits this season. Jermaine Dye will replicate his 2006 season, this 2008 season.
World Series 2008: Red Sox versus Diamondbacks. 7 games. Diamondbacks win it all.