Keys to the Season: What they are saying? What I am saying?

The Blue Jays enter 2010 depleted of some depth.  We traded our only front-end starter (Roy Halladay), let our best defense outfielder walk away (Alex Rios) and also traded our best defensive infielder (Scott Rolen). 
The analysts don’t see the Jays getting any better any time soon.  That
said, it is hard to get worse than the 75-87 record that saw the Jays
finish, once again, 4th place in the highly competitive A.L. East. 

The only thing that could be worse is the Jays finishing behind the Baltimore Orioles
for dead last in the A.L. East.  This is where most believe
the Jays are headed, as Baltimore seems to be going upward in the
standings with an array of emeging young players.  Some even go further
to say that the Jays are going to be the worst team in the American
League.  Hello Kansas City Royals!  I’m not about to go nearly that far, but I do believe the Jays 2010 success is contingent on some key factors. 

Every year I look forward to reading the Baseball Prospectus write-up that forcasts the Blue Jays future.  Similar many other baseball fans, I use the intelligence and effort put into Baseball Prospectus
to supplant my own personal lack of baseball intelligence. 
They do amazing work!  More to their credit, they were dead on with
pin-pointing the downfall of J.P. Ricciardi in previous years. 
Primarily, they critiqued Ricciardi’s string of questionable signings that
started with Cory Koskie and his low-risk, low-reward college draft
picks that produced a few good talents, but ended up depleting our farm
system as a whole.

For this season, Baseball Prospectus has pretty much agreed with
other publications saying that 2010 has been “clearly surrendered to
rebuilding’ with the signing of ‘stopgap’ players like John Buck and Alex Gonzolez.” 
They also state the obvious by very briefly saying “trading the Doc
hurts, and the Jays will be in a tough battle to be ahead of the
Orioles all year.”  What they are enthused about is the prospects of Hill, Lind,
Snider and the Walrus (Brett Wallace) all playing together at some point
this year, calling them the ‘Fab Four.’ 

I’m liking this ‘Fab Four’ analogy … a lot!   So, I’m going with it as my number 1 ‘key to the season’ for the Blue Jays:

Keys to the Season

1. The Fab Four  

It would be very nice to bank on repeat seasons from Adam Lind and Aaron Hill.  If it doesn’t happen, then Baseball Prospectus
has entertained the notion of trading Aaron Hill at peak value to
further establish the Jay’s committment to rebuilding.  Anthopolous
doesn’t seem headed that wa -, but it might be an idea? 
Hill and Lind anchored our lineup last year. The Jays would not have won 70
games without them.  For 2010 we need to count on their bats have to be back in full
effect.  They are both a key component to our team now.  They now have to show that the team can rely on them.  

It will key to get help from guys like Brett Wallace/Lyle Overbay and Travis Snider providing more support near the back of the order.  Going back to Baseball Prospectus, our home park (the Rogers Centre) statistically favors left-handed power hitters.  Last year Jays radio analyst and former player, Alan Ashby,
stated that what really contributed to the Jays 1st place dominance in
April and May was one man – Travis Snider.  Snider started the season giving the
Jays a great power element before totally tapering off in May.  He was a
nice surprise for a team that could use ‘nice surprises.’  This season the Jays could
potentially get another surprise in Brett Wallace.  Anthopolous acquired his
coveted left-handed power bat as a part of the Roy Halladay trade.  The Jays hope that Wallace will be the future, as Lyle Overbay
enters the last year of his contract.  Overbay suffered a
knee contusion last week in Spring Training, so the prospects of
Wallace in 2010 look more possible.  If Snider and Wallace can somehow
find their way into the lineup and produce at expected levels for the
kinds of prospects that they are?  The Jays will have a pair of surprise
‘left-handed’ power bats to compliment Lind and our home ballpark.  Brett
Wallace didn’t have a very good spring, so the Jays will look to
rejuvenate Lyle Overbay for their left-handed production in 2010.  Granted that Overbay’s knee contusion doesn’t become
serious.  These guys all have to produce for the Jays to compete with the potent lineups of New York, Boston, Tampa and now Baltimore.  

2.  Leading the Way on the Mound

The absence of Halladay in the Jays rotation leaves the question:  What starting pitching
talent(s) will emerge?  It would be nice to see multiple guys have
success.  For the Jays to have hope of doing anything this season, they
need some pitchers step up and make a name for themselves.  The likely
candidates are Shaun Marcum and Ricky Romero.  Romero is
coming off a fine rookie year going 13-9.  At one point in the season,
some Yankees writers compared Romero’s stuff, notably his changeup, to Mets ace Johan Santana
That may be a bit strong as Romero struggled at times – compiling an ugly
WHIP of 1.52.  He will need to do better than that to lead the Jays
pitching staff, but he is still learning.

I was really looking forward to watching Shaun Marcum in the Jays
rotation last season.  He came off an impressive 2008 only to be sidelined in 2009.  At times, the way Marcum changed speeds and commanded
the strikezone makes, he was unhittable against weaker hitting clubs.  He seems
to have a great pitching IQ.  I like that Marcum always looks
like he is in control on the mound – something that he probably
learned from Roy Halladay.  Having Marcum back will be an asset that
the Jays didn’t have last season.  Although, coming off an injury, that
will hard count on.  The Jays making the Marcum the #1 opening day
starter is good sign that he will be one ‘key’ to watch in 2010!

As for the rest of our staff, the Jays look to be going with three of Brian Tallet, Marc Rzyepcynski, Brandon Morrow or Dana Eveland.

Eveland had a very strong spring that propelled him into the mix.  It is hard to tell how he will fair with the Jays, but he has certainly opened some eyes this spring.  He might be the most unlikely candidate to lead the staff, but these kind of players sometimes emerge.  Look at Ben Zobrist last year?  

The Jays gave up an intriguing young pitching prospect, Yohermyn Chavez and hard-throwing reliever Brandon League to get Brandon Morrow.  Baseball Prospectus
called Morrow “an odd decision” since the Jays don’t look to be
contending anytime soon.  I don’t agree with this because at age 25, Morrow is still young – making him a possible factor in the Jays rebuilding project.  He is the kind of
player where the Jays are expecting the worse, and hoping for the
best.  I’d say Morrow is ‘big key’ to this season because he could be
due for a breakout year capitalizing on his chance to start full-time.  If Anthopolous hit a homerun with this trade, 2010 could be very promising! 

Brian Tallet pitched very well for the Jays filling in rotation spots last year.  He
has the most experience of the bunch and is a solid option.  However, I don’t
expect him to ‘breakout’ year in 2010.  I’d catergorize Marc Rzyepcynski
the same way.  Zippy (as I call him) is very advanced for his age.  He has four good pitches that he can command, but they don’t overwhelm batters.  Both these guys are solid optionsm, but without a very high-ceiling.

If the Jays want to do something this year then having Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil
emerge is key!  Cecil overstepped his bounds getting some early
‘big-league’ experience when he should have been in the minors.  Cecil
brings a great arm and a somewhat deceptive left-handed delivery. 
Cecil’s development is not quite there, but in my opinion he has the makings of a front-line
starter.  He will start this year in AAA and look to bounce back into
the rotation at some point this year.  Kyle Drabek has had a very
impressive Spring Training.  Drabek is now being considered for the
rotation earlier than we expected.  Not having actually seen him pitch, I
hear he has a very effective, well-controled curveball that is featured
along with some other great pitching tools.  Jays fans can barely hold
their excitement on him.  I know better than the rely on a rookie though.     

With the rebuilding project underway there is no reason to rush both
Cecil and Drabek.  However, their contributions this season could be
‘key’ to the Jays 2010 season, although it is a bit of stretch to count
on rookies emerging in dramatic fashion.

It is also a bit of a stretch to count on players coming off the injuries to emerge.  Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch
are both wildcards at this point.  We may see them not pitch at all
this year?  McGowan had a serious injury, and it is a terrible shame because of
his talent level.  Litsch doesn’t have the stuff to be a top 3 starter in my
opinion, but I hope he proves me wrong.  I’m counting more on the
contributions of Drabek and Cecil as possible ‘keys to the season’ … and the future for that matter!

3.  Team Defense

The Jays lost Scott Rolen at third base, we picked up a decent
defensive shortstop Alex Gonzolez, stayed similar defensively at
catcher acquiring John Buck to replace Rod Barajas and got a little weaker in the outfield losing Alex Rios.  The Jays outfield will now have Jose Bautista
Bautista intrigues me because I want to see how much ground he can cover in the outfield.  Bautista’s arm is also well above-average.  I look
for him to step-up and be a key contributor to the team defense.  With Adam Lind and Travis Snider possibly occuping the other corner
outfield spot, it could get ugly.  Also Edwin Encarncion at third base is a very risky option.  The Jays will need to play good ‘team defense,’ as they look to be deteriorating in that respect.

Conclusion

If all these things fall into place, the Jays will have a very good
year.  If they don’t?  And you will notice that I don’t expect all them
to actually happen.  The Jays will – as every baseball preview predicts
– submit this season to rebuilding and likely end up in the ‘cellar’ of
the A.L. East.  Notice how I used the word ‘cellar.’  Cellar are often opened by keys … ha ha.  Yep, I’m a cornball.

Even though this year looks bleak Blue Jay fans, it will be entertaining to look out for my:

Keys to the Season”   

JaysKeys copy.jpg 

                            

 

              

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9 comments

  1. bjay_fan

    Well, you’re walking on said ground, but still, you’re a little pessimistic here, why don’t you try some OPTIMISM? Like what the real Jays fans are doing?

  2. raysfanboy

    You guys won’t be the worst in the league. I think you are rebuilding, but youwon’t be the worst. I mean, youv’e got Lind, Romero, Wells, and Hill among others. I don’t think you did a darn thing to make your team better for 2010, but that is obvious when youlose the Doc. I think that unloading some of those contracts will pay off in the long run big time.

    http://raysfanboy.mlblogs.com/

  3. welikeroywelikeroy

    Guys thank you for coming. Excuse my grammar, as I didn’t proof this right away you all commented very quick.

    92/93,

    Thank you for coming by the blog my Blue Jay friend. I know that I am pessimistic. I think that for this season, A LOT has to go right for the Jays to be successful! I’m not totally giving up on it. I’m saying that we need those three keys to be successful. I hope they are there. Believe me! I hope!

    Raysfan,

    Thank you for the support, especially coming from a Rays fan. You rock. Wells didn’t make my list as a key because every year I say he needs to be a big factor in our offense, and every year he disappoints me. I’m expecting the same out of him. Good defensive, but a seldom hot bat. I’ve moved on from Vernon Wells as a source for offense. I’ve gone onto other guys!

    Yankeesoholic,

    Again thanks for the support coming from a Yankee fan! You rock as well! I agree that the stars line up better for the Jays in the future more than they do this year. We will see if trading Michael Taylor hurts the Jays process as much as some believe it might. A part of me, however, is glad that Anthopolous got his man in Brett Wallace. It is also very nice to hear about how well Kyle Drabek is doing in the spring.

  4. devilabrit

    As an avid Phillies fan we thank the Jays for selling out and giving up Halladay…. and unfortunately part of my predictions have the Jays at the bottom of the division, I think they gave up too much ending last year and didn’t pick enough up for 2010, although 2011 and 2012 with prospects in place they will be on the rise….

    – peter
    Phillies Outside
    http://devilabrit.mlblogs.com

  5. cookandsonbats

    The Brandon-for-Brandon swap took me off guard. Jack Z. has done a great job as our GM thus far, so I have faith in him. But I really like Morrow and thought he would eventually work his way into being a quality starter for the Mariners. Anyway, I hope it works out for both teams and both Brandons. Tim and I will be checking in on Morrow (and the rest of your squad) next weekend in Baltimore. We ended last season with Jays-O’s and we’re beginning this season with Jays-O’s. By the way, remember how last season ended? Extra innings, consecutive bunts and consecutive throwing errors by Brandon League lets the winning run move from first base to home plate. Ouch. It was painful to watch even for a Mariners fan.
    -Todd
    http://cookandsonbats.mlblogs.com

  6. welikeroywelikeroy

    Jenn,

    The journey with this team will be great. They all say that 2010 is ‘surrendered to rebuilding.’ But I believe that if the right pieces all fall into (i.e. the keys to the season) then the Jays can do some damage. And maybe even win the Wild Card? I wouldn’t put that out of question.

    Jane,

    You are very observant being a non-Jays fan. The offensive was a key component of the Jays last season. We had great seasons from guys like Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. They provided some unexpected production in the middle of our order. Our back end pitching was a different story.

    Peter,

    Thanks for coming by, and thank you for the good wishes on the Jays future in 2011, 2012. I can’t wait to see Halladay devastate the N.L. East this year. So, I can relate with you, a Phillies fan, that way.

    Todd,

    I do remember that game. It was painful. League had many painful moments as a Jay, but he also had many outstanding moments! His splitter can sometimes be unhittable, and he also dominated the Yankees, for some reason?? I like the good words about Morrow. Many believe that he could have a breakout year. I just watched him dominate the Astros for 5 innings in the last Jays spring game.

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